Bitcoin's Great Alignment

The stars are aligning for Bitcoin's biggest run yet: U.S. ETFs, pro-BTC President, 2024 Halving, Fed pivot, AI, and more

Oct 26, 2023

Say it with me: “The Halving is not priced in…”

A series of extremely positive catalysts, some of the biggest in its history, are all lining up in Bitcoin’s favor, and incredibly they will all coincide at exactly the same time in 2024. Two of the biggest will be the Halving which will reduce the amount of BTC available to buy (or sell) by 50% and the 2024 ETF, which at the exact same time will increase demand for Bitcoin by billions.

2024 Halving = Supply Shock
2024 BTC ETF = Demand Shock

Supply will reduce by 2x at the exact same time demand will increase by 2x-10x. And those are only two of the catalysts lined up for next year… let’s explore a few others:

Stars are Aligning in 2024

Bitcoin ETFs will be approved in 2024:
A wave of incoming Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs will be approved in 2024 (if not sooner). A Bitcoin ETF has long been one of the most anticipated events in the space as regulated ETFs provide regulatory validation and allow large scale institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through a traditional, exchange-listed product for the first time. The SEC has finally run out of excuses to block this, and the courts recognize there is simply no good reason why a Bitcoin ETF shouldn’t exist. This development will provide a significant on-ramp for institutional and retail investors to enter the Bitcoin market, potentially leading to $14.4bn of inflows next year alone.

Bitcoin's 4th Halving will take place in 2024:
At exactly the same time demand is rising, supply will be shrinking, making BTC exponentially more expensive to get. After the 2024 halving, daily issuance will be cut in half and miners will receive only 3.125 BTC instead of 6.25 BTC for verifying transactions. With its annual inflation rate dropping to 0.9%, Bitcoin will become more than twice as scarce as Gold (~2% inflation). This scarcity factor has *always* led to supply-driven price rallies between around 1,000% and 10,000%. In 2024, Bitcoin’s fourth halving is likely to continue this trend, making the digital asset more scarce than ever before, at exactly the same time demand is higher than ever before. Let the countdown begin.

A Pro-Bitcoin U.S. President will be elected in 2024:
This is the first election cycle we’ve seen Bitcoin play a decidedly prominent role. It is something almost every candidate has a position on, and both sides of the aisle are almost unanimously supportive. From Democratic (and recently Democratic) candidates like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. defending the asset in Bitcoin Magazine to Republican candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy advocating for keeping Bitcoin & blockchain innovation in the U.S. If a pro-Bitcoin U.S. President is elected in 2024, we will have both political support and regulatory support (via ETFs) for the first time and at the same time.

The Federal Reserve will be forced to pivot in 2024:
The Federal Reserve's reckless monetary policy has created a situation for a mathematically unavoidable Fed pivot. The national debt has increased by more than $600 billion in the last month alone. That’s $20 billion every day or roughly $1 billion every hour. As we continue to fund new wars in Ukraine, Israel, and soon Taiwan, our $33.7 Trillion debt will become unmanageable, forcing the Fed to slash rates, print money, or both, causing hard assets like BTC to rally.

All the bad actors will be behind bars in 2024:
2022 was our industry’s Rapture. Acolytes who practiced the Gospel of Satoshi were saved while non-believers were sentenced to eternity in jail. 2023 focused on putting bad actors behind bars (3AC), on trial (SBF), or out of office (Gensler). 2024 is a clean slate for the industry to rebuild on a more solid foundation. Coincidentally, asset sales from Mt. Gox & FTX are both scheduled to be completed by the end of the year, so 2024 will have no more forced sell pressure.

Conclusion

Declining supply, rising demand, political support, regulatory approval, Fed pivot… all coinciding in 2024. Not to mention chaos catalysts like multiple global wars and runaway national debt driving demand for the stability Bitcoin represents (billionaire Larry Fink last week called Bitcoin a “flight to safety”). Plus positive catalysts like Taproot, Ordinals, Stacks, and AI driving adoption of BTC for things like machine-to-machine payments (more on this in a future post).

I promise you it will not happen in a straight line, but the trend is clear:

The stars are aligned for Bitcoin in 2024.